Map and count is current as of 9/15/08. Presentation by Mr. Wood.
- Obama / Biden – 207
- McCain / Palin – 227
- Toss Up – 104
Each week between September 15 and November 4 (the election) Senior Current Issues will provide you an update on the progress of the 2008 Presidential Election. Each week at this site you will find a photo (USA Electoral Map in room #112) of the updated polling comparisons between Barack Obama and John McCain. Each week a different group of seniors will offer you a three minute podcast of where this election currently stands and the trends they see on the horizon. Student groups will provide a news article that they think will help you to better understand the dynamics of this election. All students are encouraged to listen to the podcast and read the article.
SCI students will offer a “what do you think” question that goes with the news article. All Senior Current Issues students must do the ensuing 20 point blog. All other students may choose to answer the question as an extra credit blog assignment (5 pts max.) Postings for the question must be made by 7:00 PM Friday of the week in question.
All electoral votes come from estimates located on Real Clear Politics.com Remember polls are only estimates of how people may vote. Until Nov 4 nobody really knows the outcome of this election.
Podcast (7:30) – click podcast. Go to Real Clear Politics while you listen. Podcast coincides with photo of map in room 112, located at the top of this post.
News Article – Christian Science Monitor – “Election Wild Card – First Time Voters”
Question – The colors on our map will bounce about for the next sixty days. Many people will change their minds about a host of things; the war, the economy, the candidates themselves. Registration of new voters throws a monkey wrench into the polling data. Who knows what will happen on November 4? Read the article – bring your own thoughts to bare. What things do you think will have the biggest impact in changing the polling colors of our map over the next sixty days?
Check the category “08 ELECTION – The News” for more news about the candidates and the Election.
What I think will have the biggest impact in changing the polling colors on the map will be the new voters and all the different races voting. If all the new voters that are registering actually vote then it will throw off all the data that they have now. They are basing the election now on past elections and past data, but we will not know for sure what happens until November forth. When the new people votes actually gets accounted for. I think the up coming election will be a suspires to all.
(-5 spelling) What about debates, race, early voting, same day voting, economy, war, voter knowledge. Come on Joe you are a smart guy. Dig in. 12 minus 5 = (7 of 20 F)
*Extra Credit*
I was not aware that some states allowed same-day registration to vote. I think this will have the biggest impact in changing the polling colors on the map because the people who register to vote on November 4th have not been figured into the polls that are taking place everyday. However, it’s important to remember that as accurate as the polls and the questions asked by the pollsters are becoming, nobody is going to know what will happen until it happens!
(3 pts extra) – OK this extra credit – it deals one of many issues – but is specific to that issue. Thanks for taking it on…next dig even deeper Rachel.
I think that the young voters are going to be the hardest thing for pollsters to calculate. The pollsters no longer can go by previous elections because for many of the young voters this will be their first time to the voting booths. I think that young voters are truly interested in the election, so they will not be persuaded by television commercials. Young people are going to pay attention to the candidates and their policies.
Great on one issue – young voters. What about the podcast? What about Latinos – same day – old models – debates. Come on Geoff -digin. (12 of 20 – D)
I believe the young and new voters will play a pivotal role on the pollster’s calculations and assumptions. The pollsters will not be able to determine what state votes for what political party because so many new voters are registering. That’s why the votes keep swinging back and forth and the candidates leads are going back and forth. One day Obama is leading and the next McCain leads by a lot. The polls can sometimes by very inacurate because the pollster’s do not know what side the new voters are going to swing over too.
(-5 spelling) – You are hitting one aspect of complicated situation. What about the podcast – the debates – economy, war, events, Latino vote. Dig in Kyle. (13-5 = 8/20 – F)
There really are so many things that could affect the election. And so far nothing this year has been very predictable. Many times things come out of nowhere and turn the tide suddenly. I think it will be the things that we don’t know about that shake it up the most. Even if they are really unimportant, really anything could change the election. Star power can also really influence it because entertainers have the ability to inspire and move the general public so easily. Unfortunately I think how apathetic various people are will play the biggest rol
1. There really are so many things that could affect the election. And so far nothing this year has been very predictable. Many times things come out of nowhere and turn the tide suddenly. I think it will be the things that we don’t know about that shake it up the most. Even if they are really unimportant, really anything could change the election. Star power can also really influence it because entertainers have the ability to inspire and move the general public so easily. Unfortunately I think how apathetic various people are will play the biggest role.
You haven’t said anything – other than “anything can change this electiion” Nick – you didn’t read or listen to anything. Come on. (5 of 20 – F)
I believe that the new voters will have the biggest impact on this election, like Joe said the colors are based on past elections and past data, the new voters are a big impact. This election has some big issues and I also think that people are sick of the way the country is going right now. Not to mention the diverse presidential candidates and their vice presidents, it’s something this country has never really dealt with before. There is more of a difference in the two parties and not to mention that many people don’t have land line phones. This is one election I really don’t think that you can base the election on the polling colors.
new voters, land lines #2 – OK you covered two issues – yea you are the first – but still nothing really from the article or podcast. debates, race, young people, latinos, war, economy. Come on Spicy Cinnamon (13 of 20 – D+)
I agree with Joe our upcoming generation, unlike other generations, is going to vote like there is no tomorrow. Ever since we were little we have been told that it is our obligation to our country to vote. Because we can not vote until we are 18, many of us are waiting with anticipation. Right now there are only 2 or 3 people in our class who can vote. Next election we all will be able to. Because pollsters are not going to be able to track us there will be no way that the next election can be polled. Or if it is polled then the actual election may turn out to be absolutely different from who the polls said should have won.
Tyler
Tyler you haven’t talked about ANYTHING in the article or podcast. You are talking about ONE issue – and providing no support from the assignment. Maybe it will take time to get back to work this year. But you are capable of a LOT more than this! (12 of 20 / D-)
There could be many different factors that can change the polling colors in the next 60 days. Some of the key factors could be that this election is drawing in many first time voters. This could be a factor because if there are many new voters then it’s going to throw off the old polls, which are based upon the last years polling. By bringing in all these new voters it could impact the way the southern states vote. If they have many new voters that want Obama vs. McCain to win and they end up taking a poll, then that could cause a red state to go to pink or maybe even white. Bringing in these new voters is going to cause a lot of Chaos in the polls I think.
Another reason could be the factor of race. With Obama being from a different decent other than white, it’s bringing in many other voters of different races. By raising the different ethnicities of voting they are most likely raising Obama’s votes. If more people of different races vote in all the red states then that could mean that the color could switch from McCain to Obama.
Other factors that could cause the colors to change could be the issues that the candidates bring up and whether or not people like what they have to say about them. If one day someone likes McCain for what he has to say about one issue then doesn’t like what he has to say about a different issue that could make them change their mind about the candidate all together. If you have many people doing this then that could cause a major shift in the colors. In the end I think that the main key factor in this election is going to end up being race. I think that American’s havn’t fully recovered from full racism and that’s going to make it a lot more difficult for Obama to win.
Brittany – this is the first post that I have read that actually is three dimensional. You are thinking – you are bringing in info from the pod cast and from the article. You mention – issues will have an impact. The race issue will definitely impact this election. New voters and old polls – good job Brittany – you put a little effort in here. (18 of 20 / A)
What will be the biggest impact in changing the polling colors referring to the map? I believe the big impact will be an result of new voters. The reason I believe is, that most new voters still have yet to find their own reasoning for voting for their candidate. Many new young voters are often persuaded by others and false propaganda. I just believe that new voters need to take time to know politics and find their own chi before making their finally vote.
one point bonus (D+) for new voters finding their chi. I like that. But in the end…you aren’t digging in like your brain is capable of – come on Sophelia – lets hear what the depths of that mind can tell us. Take a look at Brittany’s – there’s a difference. (13 of 20 / D+)
This coming up elections votes will be based on how each canidate represents himself. Also, I believe that the votes will be based on which kind of voters are actually participating in voting, if there are more young students and different races voting, I feel that Obama could take this election and become President. Now all we can do is wait this election out and see where it goes.
(-5 spelling) Brittney there is so much more to this. Podcast? debates? war, economy, what about the article and new voters, latino voters, same day registration, etc…(12-5 = 7 of 20 F)
Issues, and the way the canidate present there outlook on the issues will persway the way people how they will vote. For isnstance when Mcain choose his vp alot changed from pink to red and blue to not sure. Until november fourth there will not be a sure consensuse of what state is with what canidate. But i think that in this race it wont only based on political issues but also racial issues. Past data shows that the south usually votes republican and the more norther states vote democratic. This year I think that it will be very similar but i’m really not sure what to expect.
spelling? 0 of 20
I think that the issues are not what people are looking at anymore. I believe that the people who are voting, a majority of the older voters, are selecting candidates strictly on beliefs and what religion people are on then what people are having to say about what they will do when in the white house. Other voters strictly play off of religion, I’ve heard on more then one occasion a black female tell me that she would vote for Obama because he is black and she thinks that if we have another white president they will just oppress her people even more. I’m thank-full she’s not of voting age.
REPOST
I think that the issues are not what people are looking at anymore. I believe that the people who are voting, a majority of the older voters, are selecting candidates strictly on beliefs and what religion people are then what people are having to say about what they will do when in the white house. Other voters strictly play off of race, I’ve heard on more then one occasion a black female tell me that she would vote for Obama because he is black and she thinks that if we have another white president they will just oppress her people even more. I’m thank-full she’s not of voting age.
you haven’t addressed a single issue from the article or from the podcast. When you have an assignment that includes reading or listening – do so…don’t just wing it. (5 of 20 F)
I feel that we shouldnt care so much about the pole because alot of people are not sure until they reach the voting booth. Alot of people change there minds during debates or if they dont like what the presidential candidates say when they change there opinion.We honestly wont know about all of the states and how there votes sway untill the election because this is a revolutionary year.
(-10 spelling) You’ve hit one issue from the podcast that nobody talked about – the debates. But everything else from the article is ignored. You can do better I’m sure. (12 minus 10 = 2 of 20 F)
I really feel that nothing can really predict what the colors will change to. New votes and different opinions are going to occur. When people learn about were the candidates stand on certain topics the colors on the map are going to change. The people that haven’t voted yet and are learning new things everyday about the candidates are eventually going to vote that could also change the color on the map. Really every thing is going to come to a stand in less than 60 day. Are we all ready to see the results?
Good point on the issues. I think you’re right. But you ignore almost everything from article and do not touch at all on the pod cast. Come on Crystal – we are back in school…let’s dig in! (12 of 20 D)
Unfortunately, I hold the strong belief that the poll changes have less to do with new voters, informed decisions, and faulty polls; and more to do with the fact that we, as a nation, depend almost entirely on media trash to make our decisions for us.
This is a fact: the American voter will almost entirely make their decision based on campaign ads on T.V., even though most of these ads (on both the McCain and Obama sides) are either false or have a complete lack of substance.
This is a fact: the average American voter can tell you if a candidate wears a flag pin or if their daughters are pregnant out of wedlock, but they cannot tell you how their candidate plans to deal with wall street, the war in Iraq, or the energy crisis.
This is a fact: Many voters are basing their votes on archaic and out of date stereotypes and even though 80% of polled voters think our country is headed in the wrong direction, they won’t even change their poor ideologies for that change.
This is a fact: Our nation is divided into factions. A system that is supposed to create unity has, instead, wrought complete separation and there are certain states that will always remain red and will always remain blue.
These are all factors of this upcoming election and though the token phrase of both campaigns is change, we are not willing to accept change and we are not willing to force change.
In closing I’ll leave with this: the colors of the map may change, but our deep ties to bigotry and false assumptions will not. We are a nation that has, I fear, run its course. America is becoming the land of yesterday, the land of old and tired ideas, the land where new ideas are mocked and destroyed, and a land where even the most bright and gifted men and women are not allowed to serve in our nations greatest office because of old beliefs. I am not supporting either candidate here. If you tell me you do not like Obama because he is black, I will scorn your opinion; if you tell me you don’t like McCain because he’s old, I’ll ask you for a better argument; if you tell me you don’t like Biden because he has a big mouth, I’ll laugh at you; and if you tell me you don’t like Palin because she’s a women, I’ll disregard you.
These are the facts and we have a duty to our nation to recognize and destroy them, less we be destroyed by them.
I want to stand up and cheer. I think you are correct in many of your assumptions – but you also need to lend credence to the arguments posed in the article. It is a fact that new voters, same day voter registration, Latino numbers will all affect the outcome of this race. Stay passionate – but don’t forget the nuts and bolts of election day. I am as cynical as you – however voters will go to the polls and millions will cast their ballot – what impact do the items noted in the article have on November 4. (17 of 20 B+)
-Corey Swanson
The biggest thing that will have an impact on the out come of the election is new voters. Like the article said new voters will throw a monkey wrench into the election. They are registering in larger numbers and no one knows how they will vote. (good point – finally somebody quoted the article.)
The second biggest thing that will play a role in the election is prejudice. People are unlikely to vote outside their comfort zone, and with a women and an African American in the race they are having a hard time deciding to vote for. (again nice input)
Until the election I think that we will see constant changes in the colors on the map due to these and a whole host of other new variables.
Nice job on the two issues! Good. And then on that last sentence – you note – there’s a whole host of other variables. Well Jamie this would be the time to talk about the whole host of variable. Still, when I’m looking at so many students who obviously did not read the assignment it is nice to find that somebody did. (16 of 20 – B)
First, I just wanted to say that I really liked this article. I think that it was important to address how polls get their data and how that fluctuates all the time. Rachel Stewart voiced a concern that I know I personally felt: how is it that we have an electoral map already with designated colors on how each state is going to vote on the upcoming election, when we are still a month and a half away from Election Day? This article addressed that question.
This article told us that especially in this election the polls accuracy maybe way off. The polls may not reflect the true sentiment of the American people and whichever candidate is solely relying on polling data may have a shocking surprise on Nov. 4. The article mentioned many different factors that are responsible for the fluctuations of the poling data.
One of the factors was new time voters. New voters are registering to vote for the first time in record numbers, compared to prior elections. People are interested in this election. There is a man candidate with a woman vice president and a black candidate, this electoral race is catching people’s eye.
However, the biggest impact in changing the poling colors of our map over the next sixty days is the decision by senator McCain to have Senator Palin as his vice President. This decision, bad or good, has thrown the biggest “Monkey Wrench” into this election. We have already seen evidence of this in recent weeks. The only other major influence in this election, that I can foresee, is going to be the debates between McCain and Barrack. Let me finish by asking for all of you to vote for me today for queen of Oakridge. I will do my very best to make you all proud! thank you so much for the honor.
OK – good intro – you introduce the poll problem by citing the article. Now I’m ready to hear you dig into the reasons there is poll problem – but you stop (maybe the nervousness of the queen election I don’t know but other than the new voters it never makes it to print) Latinos, same day registration, early voting, problems with the old model. You do however get the prize for being the ONLY person in this class to even mention the debates. You also touch on Palin. Good start – needs more depth. (17 of 20 B+)
This assignment is closed.
ABSENT!!! PLEASE GIVE ME CREDIT!!!
This election is unlike any election we’ve ever seen. The polls cannot get a good estimate, and I believe this is because there are so many new voters out there. The same day registration in some states will also change the outcome of the election. Another thing I think will influence the polls is racism. There are so many people out there, even up here in Michigan, that are still so racist that they will not even consider the possibility of an african-american president. Between the racist people who wont even consider Obama and the young people who are not being counted in the polls, there is no real way to predict this election until November 4th.
I’m up in Ludington for equestrian team with Pepperpot, wish me luck!!
Forget trying to bribe me by bringing Pepperpot into the mix. Must be nice to take the week off and still ride Pepperpot in the World Equestrian Event Olympics. OK onto your post. You’ve hit issues that were in the article.. same day reg, racism, young voters. All impact issues. There’s a lot more particularly world issues and debates, Latinos etc. But considering the lack of depth in everybody elses posts this is better than average. Decent. Good luck with the pot. (15 of 20 C+)
The number of factors that are put into this election is large. The colors on the map could take a 180 turn who ever knows. There are many parts that come to play in this election not only white and African American but what about the race of the voters more Latinos are registering to vote they have views that are important to them that everyday people like you are me are not going to think about the amount of rights that “colored people” have, and weather their kids are going to have a good education not having to worry about if they are going to get scammed out of what they deserve. They also do not let the race affect them so they give a twist which could switch the poll to Obama instead of McCain
Then you have the young voters, I don’t think people get it. They think that our generation is going to sit back and watch but let’s see who is watching when the polls change because we do have something to say. Were not going to let the elder men of American it’s the new generation. I also believe that young voters are not so much into the whole race bubble and democratic or republican, they look at the facts, and the platform the thing that really truly matter to this world.
We have made a huge leap away from being racism but are we all the way there no way. We still have that tough south they are not going to change maybe 15 years from now but not now. Obama would be an amazing president is it going to happen you never know but unfortunately the chances are slim we still have some bull headed people in American.Sometime we do not look at the issue I think that people are falling in love with Sarah Palin but once the take time to see her platform I don’t think people will be so in love with her but when you dig in you will see some of her ideas are not the one you are looking for do not let yourself float on top.
You hit the race issue and young people well. What about the issues that the candidate’s talk about? The debates? The issues that were noted in the article about same day registration etc. I like the fact that you are opinionated here…that’s good. Now make sure in these the Votes that you deal with the specifics of the news article as well.
(-5 spelling) 16-5 = 11 of 20
I guess I’m disappointed in the depth – or the lack of depth – that we as a class went into on this assignment. Very few of you listened to the entire podcast. Many paid no heed to the article that was assigned. In the end most of these posts were just “winging it”. This is exactly the type of attitude and lack of intellectual work that has to be overcome in this country if we intend to take on real issues in this presidential campaign – if we are going to make it to the things that matter.
The question asked you to listen to the podcast and take it into account, to read the article, to bring your thoughts to bare – not to get thru it with a three sentence fluff.
We have some work to do. We have an obligation as citizens to dig for the truth. You as students on the verge of college need to take on all assignments with the intellectual intensity that a young person on the verge of working towards a degree in higher education would.
In the end…I know what you all are capable of. I am not going to allow you to skate, particularly on something as crucial as this Next time roll up your shirt sleeves – sit down at that computer and THINK!
However many holy words you read,However many you speak,What good will they do you If you do not act on upon them?